In its latest announcement, the Bank of Canada has chosen to keep its target for the overnight interest rate unchanged at 2.75%. The Bank Rate remains at 3%, while the deposit rate stays at 2.70%. At first glance, this might seem like business as usual — no immediate changes, no cause for alarm.

But dig a little deeper, and it becomes clear that this decision comes against a backdrop of rising global uncertainty, particularly around U.S. trade policies and how those changes might ripple across economies — including our own here in Canada.

So, while the interest rates haven’t changed for now, there’s a lot going on behind the scenes that could impact your finances in the coming months.

Why Interest Rates Matter

Let’s take a quick step back. Interest rates are one of the central tools the Bank of Canada uses to manage inflation and economic stability. When the Bank raises rates, it becomes more expensive to borrow money, which tends to slow down spending and borrowing. When it lowers rates, borrowing becomes cheaper, encouraging more economic activity.

By holding the rate steady, the Bank is signaling a “wait and see” approach — neither encouraging aggressive borrowing nor pushing for a slowdown. That neutral stance tells us they’re watching current global developments closely and don’t yet feel it’s time to intervene further.

What’s Driving This Decision?

The biggest factor on the Bank’s radar right now is the uncertainty surrounding international trade, especially with the evolving U.S. policies. These policies are creating potential headwinds for global economic growth — and Canada, being a trade-dependent country, is particularly sensitive to those changes.

The Bank of Canada has laid out two possible scenarios that could unfold depending on how the trade situation plays out:

Scenario 1: Short-Term Uncertainty, But No Major Damage

In this first possibility, we see ongoing trade tensions but only limited tariffs being imposed. That would likely lead to some short-term slowing of growth in Canada — perhaps less business investment, more cautious consumer spending, and a bit of market wobble.

The upside? Inflation would likely remain close to the Bank’s 2% target, and the economic softness would be more of a temporary slowdown than a serious downturn.

Scenario 2: Prolonged Trade War and a Canadian Recession

The second scenario is more concerning. If trade tensions escalate into a longer-term, more aggressive conflict — with rising tariffs and retaliatory measures — the Canadian economy could fall into a recession.

In this case, inflation could climb above 3%, making everyday goods and services more expensive. At the same time, we’d be dealing with weaker growth, fewer jobs, and reduced consumer confidence.

Neither of these scenarios is certain yet — and the Bank is keeping a close watch on how things unfold before making any further rate decisions.

What This Means for You

Even though interest rates haven’t moved, the message here is clear: economic uncertainty is rising, and now is the time to get ahead of it.

Here’s how this could affect different parts of your financial life — and what you can do to stay prepared:

1. Your Mortgage or Loans

If you have a variable-rate mortgage or any loans tied to the prime rate, the good news is your payments aren’t going up — for now. But with so much volatility in the air, you’ll want to watch for signs that rates could rise in the future. It might be worth speaking with your lender about locking in a fixed rate if you prefer more stability.

2. Your Investments

This is a great time to revisit your portfolio. Are you diversified enough? Do you have a mix of assets that can weather market ups and downs? Uncertainty can lead to volatility, but it can also open doors to opportunities. Stay focused on your long-term goals, and don’t panic over short-term market noise.

3. Your Budget

With inflation potentially on the rise — especially in Scenario 2 — your cost of living could increase. Take a close look at your spending habits now. Tighten up where you can and build a bit of a buffer in case things get more expensive down the road.

4. Your Business or Career

If you’re a business owner or even an employee in a trade-sensitive sector, it’s important to stay informed and agile. Be ready to pivot or adapt if conditions change. For example, a shift in tariffs could impact your supply chain, pricing, or customer demand.

What Should You Do Now?

We’re not in crisis mode — but we are in a period of heightened awareness. That makes now the perfect time to evaluate your position:

• Reassess your financial goals.

• Check in with your financial advisor.

• Ensure your financial plan is flexible and future-proof.

• Stay informed on global and domestic economic developments.

Think of this as a chance to strengthen your foundation. You don’t need to make drastic moves, but staying proactive can help you navigate whatever comes next with confidence.

What’s Next?

The next scheduled rate update from the Bank of Canada is on Wednesday, June 4. That announcement could offer more clarity on how the Bank plans to respond if the trade landscape continues to evolve. If new inflation data or economic indicators shift significantly, we could see changes in the Bank’s approach.

Until then, the best thing you can do is stay informed, stay flexible, and stay ready.

As Canada’s major industries, including automotive, steel, and aluminum, face job uncertainty due to ongoing U.S. trade tensions, another shift is quietly happening in Ontario’s housing market — and this time, it might just be in favour of buyers.

Recent data from RPS-Wahi, a respected property valuation firm, shows a clear softening in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate landscape. For the first time in years, bidding wars — once a defining feature of the market — are slowing down. If you've been waiting for a sign to enter the market, this might be it.

A Cooling Market: What the Data Tells Us

Spring typically brings a flurry of activity to the housing market, with eager buyers and tight inventories driving up prices. But this year, it’s a different story in many GTA neighbourhoods. According to a recent RPS-Wahi analysis, a striking 65% of homes sold in March went for below the asking price — the same as in February, and significantly higher than the 53% recorded a year ago.

Even more telling is that only 20% of GTA neighbourhoods with five or more sales experienced overbidding last month. This suggests that aggressive bidding is no longer the norm, particularly outside Toronto’s core.

Condominiums have been hit hardest, with 75% of sales closing below the list price, while 58% of single-family homes also sold for less than asking. The softest region? Halton, where a mere 3% of homes sold at asking price, and just 22% sold over — a significant pullback from past years.

Homes Are Being Relisted — For Less

A clear signal of the changing market is the growing number of homes being relisted — sometimes for up to $400,000 less than their original listing prices, according to a report by Zoocasa. Sellers are adjusting expectations to reflect more cautious buyers and a broader sense of economic uncertainty.

That uncertainty is being felt outside the GTA as well. The Hamilton and Burlington areas, long seen as popular alternatives to the city, are also seeing slower activity. Data from the Cornerstone Association of Realtors shows that March 2025 recorded the lowest sales volume for that month since 2009, with only 701 units sold across Hamilton, Burlington, Haldimand County, and Niagara North. Overall, Q3 sales were 27% lower than last year.

Why Buyers Are Holding Back — and Why That Might Be a Mistake

Uncertainty in the broader economy, especially with concerns around U.S. tariffs and potential job losses in key sectors, has many would-be buyers on the sidelines. Benjy Katchen, president and CEO of RPS-Wahi, acknowledges that fear and uncertainty are real — but he also sees opportunity.

“There’s definitely hesitation in the market,” Katchen said. “But that hesitation is what’s giving buyers a rare moment to breathe.”

With fewer buyers entering the fray, there’s less competition, less pressure to rush, and more negotiating power for those who are ready to make a move.

The (Temporary?) Pause on Bidding Wars

Anyone who’s tried to buy a home in the GTA over the past decade knows the frustration of bidding wars. Properties often sold tens or even hundreds of thousands over asking, with buyers facing emotional rollercoasters and repeated losses.

But for now, that frenzy appears to be paused. Katchen doesn’t believe bidding wars are gone for good — they’re too ingrained in the Toronto real estate culture — but he does think we’re in a rare window.

“I don’t think we’ll ever see an end to that in Toronto,” he said. “It’s just a question of the cycle. It might be a pause for three or four months, but I don’t think we’ll ever see an end to that.”

Indeed, the only places still seeing strong overbidding are specific pockets of Old Toronto, where median sale prices hover around $1.3 million — out of reach for many first-time buyers.

Mortgage Rules Are Easing in Your Favour

While the real estate market cools, new mortgage regulations are creating more favorable conditions for buyers — especially first-timers.

The federal government has increased the price cap for insured mortgages from $1 million to $1.5 million, and extended amortization periods to 30 years for new buyers. These changes open up access to more financing options, reduce monthly payments, and make homes more attainable.

This shift could make previously competitive areas like Davenport, Sinclair West, and Danforth Village more attractive — especially for buyers looking for detached or semi-detached homes near downtown Toronto.

More Time to Make the Right Choice

In a hot market, buyers often have to move quickly — sometimes making offers within hours of a showing, waiving conditions, and accepting higher prices just to stay competitive.

But now? You can take your time. You can compare listings, book second visits, and negotiate pricing. That breathing room can make all the difference, especially for major financial decisions like buying a home.

“If I was a buyer, I’d rather buy where I can take a little more time to get a deal and get good financing than have to stand against 25 other people in a line and lose out several times before I finally get what I wanted,” said Katchen.

Interest Rates: Another Hidden Advantage

Interest rates, while not at pandemic-era lows, remain competitive — and in some cases, are trending downward. Buyers can still access five-year fixed mortgage rates under 4%, and variable rates have also dipped, making financing more affordable than many expected.

“It's a different market from an interest rate standpoint versus a year ago,” Katchen added.

For buyers with stable employment and a long-term outlook, the combination of better mortgage conditions, lower prices, and less competition is a unique trifecta.

Final Thoughts: Is This the Right Time to Buy?

While every buyer’s situation is unique, there are compelling reasons to consider entering the market now:

• Prices are lower — in some cases, significantly.

• Fewer bidding wars mean more negotiating power.

• Improved mortgage rules make higher-value homes more accessible.

• Interest rates are attractive and may decline further.

• You have more time to make thoughtful decisions.

Yes, the market is uncertain. Yes, the broader economy is still finding its footing. But those very conditions are creating a window of opportunity that smart, prepared buyers could benefit from — before the next wave of competition arrives.

Thinking about buying this spring? Let’s chat about what makes sense for your goals and timeline. It may just be your best chance in years to get into the market — on your terms.