Posted on
December 11, 2024
by
Michael Jakobczak
Canada’s central bank has cut interest rates for the fifth consecutive time as the country’s economy continues to grow at a slower pace than anticipated. The Bank of Canada announced a 50-basis-point reduction, citing subdued economic performance and rising unemployment as key factors influencing the decision.
Canada’s economy expanded by just 1 per cent in the third quarter of 2024, and early indications suggest that growth in the fourth quarter will be even weaker. “Monetary policy no longer needs to be clearly in restrictive territory,” said Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem in a statement. He emphasized that the lower interest rates have already begun to stimulate consumer spending and housing activity.
Economic Pressures and Rising Unemployment
One of the central bank’s primary concerns is the labor market. Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 6.8 per cent in November, as the number of people seeking work outpaced the creation of new jobs. “It has been especially hard for young people and newcomers to Canada to find work,” Macklem noted.
Economists are forecasting further increases in unemployment. A recent analysis by BMO’s chief economist, Douglas Porter, predicts that the jobless rate will likely average 7 per cent in the first quarter of 2025 before gradually declining.
Adding to these challenges, a recent shift in federal immigration policy has moderated population growth. While this change may relieve some pressures on housing and services, private sector economists warn it could contribute to higher unemployment rates in the near term.
External Risks and Trade Uncertainty
Global factors are also shaping Canada’s economic outlook. The central bank highlighted potential risks stemming from the incoming U.S. administration, including the threat of 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian exports. “No one knows how this will play out in the months ahead – whether tariffs will be imposed, whether exemptions get agreed, or whether retaliatory measures will be put in place,” Macklem said.
Inflation and Government Policy
Despite these challenges, the Bank of Canada expects inflation to remain near its 2 per cent target over the next two years. Shelter price inflation and goods price inflation have eased, though the bank warned that “elevated wage increases combined with weak productivity could push inflation up.”
Recent federal government measures are also influencing inflation dynamics. A two-month GST holiday on a broad range of consumer goods is expected to temporarily lower inflation to around 1.5 per cent in January. However, this effect will dissipate once the GST break ends in mid-February. Additionally, proposed one-time payments of $250 for working Canadians earning less than $150,000 annually, and changes to mortgage rules, are expected to impact demand and inflation trends.
Looking Ahead
The central bank is taking a cautious approach to future rate decisions, forecasting a more “gradual approach” to monetary policy adjustments. It is also monitoring potential new federal spending on border security measures. This spending could be announced in the Fall Economic Statement, which Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland is set to present on December 16.
The Bank of Canada’s next scheduled announcement on the overnight rate target is January 29, 2025.